Valguskiired sombuses taevas ehk ükskord me trükime niikuinii

Kes viimasel ajal on silmi lahti hoidnud, see on märganud üldiselt sombuses taevas üksikuid lootustandvaid valguskiiri. Nimelt võib raha varsti hakata sõna otseses mõttes taevast alla sadama. See tundub üha enamatele olevat ainus võimalus, kuidas vanast taagast lahti saada ja majandus uuesti jalule aidata. Eestis, Euroopas ja globaalselt. Küsimus on vaid selles, kas see  toimub enne või pärast Suure Surutise kümnendat aastapäeva.

Viimane Economist: Out of ammo? (20.2.2016) koputas poliitikute südametunnistusele ja tuli välja soovitusega, millest „heas seltskonnas“ ei ole seni olnud kombeks kõva häälega rääkida.

„The time has come for politicians to join the fight alongside central bankers. The most radical policy ideas fuse fiscal and monetary policy. One such option is to finance public spending (or tax cuts) directly by printing money—known as a “helicopter drop”. Unlike QE, a helicopter drop bypasses banks and financial markets, and puts freshly printed cash straight into people’s pockets. The sheer recklessness of this would, in theory, encourage people to spend the windfall, not save it. (A marked change in central banks’ inflation targets would also help: see Free exchange.)”

Ja artikkel lõppeb tõdemusega, et …

”It’s the politics, stupid – The problem, then, is not that the world has run out of policy options. Politicians have known all along that they can make a difference, but they are weak and too quarrelsome to act. America’s political establishment is riven; Japan’s politicians are too timid to confront lobbies; and the euro area seems institutionally incapable of uniting around new policies.”

Vaatamata ketserlikele mõtetele pole isegi britid usku eurotsooni tulevikku lõplikult kaotanud. Tänase madisepäeva puhul avaldab Financial Times lootust, et rahatrükk polegi ehk enam mägede taga. Visalt aga kindlalt on need majanduslikult täiesti kained mõtted rühkinud poliitilise ebakorrektsuse koridoridest peavoolu suunas.

Martin Wolf: Helicopter drops might not be far away (FT 24.2.2016)

„The world economy is slowing, /…/ The next step is likely to include fiscal expansion. Indeed, this is what the OECD, long an enthusiast for fiscal austerity, recommends in its Interim Economic Outlook. But that is unlikely to be the end. With fiscal expansion might go direct monetary support, including the most radical policy of all: the “helicopter drops” of money recommended by the late Milton Friedman.

/…/

One alternative then is fiscal policy. The OECD argues, persuasively, that co-ordinated expansion of public investment, combined with appropriate structural reforms, could expand output and even lower the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product. This is particularly plausible nowadays, because the major governments are able to borrow at zero or even negative real interest rates, long term. The austerity obsession, even when borrowing costs are so low, is lunatic.

                                                                                                                                                            

If the fiscal authorities are unwilling to behave so sensibly — and the signs, alas, are that they are not — central banks are the only players. They could be given the power to send money, ideally in electronic form, to every adult citizen. Would this add to demand? Absolutely.”

Nii et ükskord me trükime niikuinii.

PS

Eestikeelseid versioone nendest mõtetest võib lugeda aastatagusest Eesti Ekspressist „Miks trükkida raha juurde?“ ja RMi blogist „Raha trükkimine pole nali“ (veidi segane, aga tehniliste viidetega).