Alüütiline konsensus on, et taastumine käesolevast majanduskriisist on olnud ennekuulmatult, arusaamatult ja põhjendamatult aeglane. Ühtlasi on analüütiline konsensus juba aastaid koondunud Keynesistlikus tiivas, mille järgi on globaalse, aga ennekõike euroala esimene ja põhiline majandusprobleem ebapiisav kogunõudlus. Just see takistab kiiremat hõive ja tööviljakuse kasvu. Erasektor säästab rohkem kui soovib investeerida, mistõttu intressimäärad on nullis ja inflatsioon jääb jätkuvalt lootustele alla.
Kuna rahapoliitika võimalused nõudlust turgutada on ilmselt ammendatud, jääb üle loota vaid valitsuste suuremale kulutamisele. Selleks pole aga enamus arenenud riikide valitsusi vaatamata autoriteetsete institutsioonide üleskutsetele seni huvi üles näidanud. Ilmselt on kasinuse alla maetud liiga palju poliitilist kapitali, mistõttu on sellest dogmast raske loobuda. Samuti töötab populistlikult paremini riigi rolli allasurumine – jätame inimesele raha kätte, ega ta loll pole, teab ise kõige paremini, mida sellega teha. Analüütilise konsensuse kohaselt tuuakse aga sellega ohvriks nii praeguste (töötuse kaudu) kui tulevaste (madalama sissetuleku taseme ja kasvu kaudu) põlvkondade heaolu.
Arusaadavalt ei tähenda konsensus majandusanalüüsis täielikku üksmeelt, kuigi OECDle ja IMFile on sellel aastal lisandunud ka Euroopa Komisjon ja Keskpank. Ühtlasi on täiesti võimalik ühendada nõudlust toetavaid meetmeid struktuursete kitsaskohtade leevendamisega.
Allapoole koguneb jooksvalt konkreetsemaid sõnastusi probleemi olemusest ja võimalikest lahendustest. Need pärinevad kullaprooviga majandusvaatlejatelt, kellele läheb korda elanike laiade masside käekäik nii täna kui homme.
Euroopa Keskpank:
“All in all, this analysis suggests that the investment performance in the current cyclical phase is not the most disconcerting component of growth; rather, from a historical perspective, it is aggregate consumption that has been growing more slowly than usual. This finding is important for policymakers. The current recovery in investment can only be sustained if aggregate consumption also grows at a sufficiently robust pace in parallel. Policymakers would be misguided to focus on investment exclusively. Instead, policies should aim for a broader recovery of aggregate demand and consumption in particular.”
The recovery of investment in the euro area in the aftermathof the great recession: how does it compare historically? ECB 28.10.2016
Euroopa Komisjoni kantsler:
“Current conditions are extraordinary and call for a supportive fiscal policy.
/.../The European Commission has just called for a fiscal stance that is more supportive of the recovery and of monetary policy in the Eurozone. The case is strong for spending now on investment and other targeted programmes supporting growth and employment. /.../
Policy-wise, the optimal response is to spend now on growth- boosting but non-permanent programmes. This advice should be followed.”
Euroopa Komisjoni strateegiakeskus:
“The euro area fiscal stance has only very recently turned mildly positive after having been contractionary between 2011 and 2013, and broadly neutral since then. The bulk of recent literature points to a series of conditions under which discretionary fiscal actions would yield larger benefits than under normal circumstances. The euro area currently meets most of these conditions, suggesting it would benefit from additional supportive fiscal actions. This call has been voiced by both the EU – via the Commission and the ECB – and a by very broad set of stakeholders, from international organisations to internationally respected academics.”
EPSC Strategic Notes: Towards a Positive Euro Area Fiscal Stance. Supporting public investments that increase economic growth. 23.11.2016.
Euroopa Komisjoni kantsler:
“The slack present in the economy seems to go beyond what is suggested by headline data. /.../ Low levels of investment, combined with high corporate and household savings, are also behind the high current account surplus of the Eurozone, which reflects a dynamics of aggregate demand weaker than output dynamics. /.../ Eurozone’s high current account surplus is projected to recede only gradually over the forecast horizon, remaining still high (2.9 % of GDP) in 2018. /.../
.... achieving a supportive fiscal stance for the Eurozone seems appropriate at this juncture. Countries that have fiscal space should use it to support domestic demand, particularly investment,”
An unusual recovery: Charting the way forward for European policymakers, Buti, Leandro, Berti, voxeu 12.05.2017.
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